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Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback June 2015)
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America By Heart
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Election Results: Nov. 7, 2018
Democrats take House; Republicans gain in Senate; Dems gain in Governorships
Following are summary results of Senate and Gubernatorial elections. For winners per race, scroll down to our predictions below.
Races which are too close to call as of Wednesday morning: (we'll fill these in as results become available):
Senatorial Results in 35 races: 2 Democratic takeovers: AZ, NV
4 Republican takeovers: FL, IN, MO, ND
22 Democratic retentions: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN-2, MN-6, MT, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI, WV
6 Republican retentions: MS-6, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY
1 race undecided: MS-2 (runoff Nov. 27)
2018 Senate partisan balance: 51-47 R-D; 2019 Senate balance: 52/53-47/48 R-D.
OnTheIssues prediction score: We predicted 24 senatorial races correctly; and 11 incorrectly (69% accuracy).
Gubernatorial Results in 36 races: 7 Democratic takeovers: IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, WI
1 Republican takeovers: AK
9 Democratic retentions: CA, CO, CT, HI, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI
17 Republican retentions: AL, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IA, MD, MA, NE, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, VT, WI
2018 Governor partisan balance: 34-16 R-D; 2019 Governor partisan balance: 28-22 R-D.
OnTheIssues prediction score: We predicted 21 gubernatorial races correctly; and 15 incorrectly (58% accuracy).
House Results in 435 races: 40 Democratic takeovers: AZ-2, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-6, FL-26, FL-27,
GA-6, IA-1, IA-3, IL-6, IL-14, KS-3, ME-2, MI-8, MI-11, MN-2,
MN-3, NJ-2, NJ-3, NJ-7, NJ-11, NM-2, NY-11, NY-19, OK-5, PA-4,
PA-5, PA-6, PA-7, SC-1, TX-7, TX-32, VA-2, VA-7, VA-10, WA-8
3 Republican takeovers: MN-1, MN-8, PA-14
173 Democratic incumbents re-elected.
165 Republican incumbents re-elected.
20 Democratic retentions (new Freshman Democratic members) in:
AZ-8, AZ-9, CO-2, CT-5, HI-1, IL-4, MA-3, MA-7, MD-6, MI-9,
MN-5, NH-1, NM-1, NV-3, NV-4, NY-14, NY-25, PA-17, TX-16, TX-29
32 Republican retentions (new Freshman Republican members) in:
FL-6, FL-15, FL-17, ID-1, IN-4, IN-6, KS-2, MS-3, MT-0, NC-9,
ND-0, OH-12, OH-16, OK-1, PA-9, PA-13, SC-4, SD-0, TN-2, TN-6,
TN-7, TX-2, TX-3, TX-5, TX-6, TX-21, TX-27, VA-5, VA-6, TK,
2 undecided races: GA-7 (incumbent Republican), UT-4 (incumbent Republican)
2018 House partisan balance: 239 Republicans to 196 Democrats (counting four vacancies as party of incumbent);
2019 House partisan balance: 202/201/200 Republicans to 233/234/235 Democrats.
Total size of Freshman class (new members who were not elected in Nov. 2016): 35/36 Republicans + 60/61/62 Democrats.
Source: See OnTheIssues Senate coverage and OnTheIssues Gubernatorial coverage, plus election results.
Senatorial election prediction:Nov. 2, 2018
Predictions in Senator's races: 7 Republican takeovers; 3 Democratic takeovers
OnTheIssues makes our predictions in each Senatorial race (see our methodology in our House predictons on Oct. 24). Highlights:
3 Democratic takeovers: AZ, NV, TX
7 Republican takeovers: IN, MI, MN-2, MO, NM, NY, WI
20 Democratic retentions: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, ME, MD, MA, MN-6, MT, NJ, ND, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WV
6 Republican retentions: MS-6, MS-2, NE, TN, UT, WY
Current Senate balance: 51-47 R-D; predicted Senate balance: 55-43 R-D.
35 total Senatorial races covered
Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.
Gubernatorial election prediction:Nov. 1, 2018
Predictions in Governor's races: 3 Republican takeovers; 12 Democratic takeovers
OnTheIssues makes our predictions in each gubernatorial race (see our methodology in our House predictons on Oct. 24). Highlights:
12 Democratic takeovers: AZ, GA, ID, IL, ME, MI, NV, OH, OK, SD, TN, WY
3 Republican takeovers: CA, OR, PA
7 Democratic retentions: AK, CO, CT, HI, MN, NY, RI
14 Republican retentions: AL, AR, FL, IA, KS, MD, MA, NE, NH, NM, SC, TX, VT, WI
Current Governor party balance: 34-16 R-D; predicted Governor party balance: 25-25 R-D.
36 total gubernatorial races covered
State and current party control: (red for Republican; blue for Democrat) Predicted winner, and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
Predicted loser(s), and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
Alabama Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Kay Ivey (R) 837
Walt Maddox (D) 368
Alaska Incumbent independent governor withdrew last week
Mark Begich (D) 278+254
Bill Walker (I) 287
Mike Dunleavy (R) 140.
Arizona Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
David Garcia (D) 3,134
Doug Ducey (R) 2,990+28
Arkansas Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Asa Hutchinson (R) 860
Jared Henderson (D) 562
Mark West (L) 239
California Democratic governor Jerry Brown term-limited
John H. Cox (R) 9,910+22
Gavin Newsom (D) 6,684+8
Colorado Democratic governor John Hickenlooper term-limited
Jared Polis (D) 1,560+487+12
Walker Stapleton (R) 815+5
Connecticut Democratic governor Dan Malloy retiring
Ned Lamont (D) 604+6
Bob Stefanowski (R) 120.
Florida Republican governor Rick Scott term-limited
Ron DeSantis (R) 8,855+2,772+1,122+41=12,790
Andrew Gillum (D) 12,504+48=12,552
Georgia Republican governor Nathan Deal term-limited
Stacey Abrams (D) 8,680+59
Brian Kemp (R) 4,720+25
Hawaii Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election
David Ige (D) 405
Andria Tupola (R) 280.
Idaho Republican governor Butch Otter retiring
Paulette Jordan (D) 820+7
Brad Little (R) 758
Illinois Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
J. B. Pritzker (D) 9,278+3
Bruce Rauner (R) 7,773+175
Iowa Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Kim Reynolds (R) 5,237+5
Fred Hubbell (D) 3,666+34
Kansas Incumbent Republican governor Jeff Colyer lost primary
Kris Kobach (R) 1,102
Greg Orman (I) 815+148+7
Laura Kelly (D) 540.
Maine Republican governor Paul LePage term-limited
Janet Mills (D) 1,449+63
Shawn Moody (R) 960.
Maryland Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Larry Hogan (R) 4,802
Ben Jealous (D) 1,587+9
Massachusetts Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Charlie Baker (R) 5,258+8
Jay Gonzalez (D) 1,748
Michigan Republican governor Rick Snyder term-limited
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2,744+13
Bill Schuette (R) 1,143
Minnesota DFL governor Mark Dayton retiring
Tim Walz (DFL) 1,350+538+19
Jeff Johnson (R) 795+5
Nebraska Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Pete Ricketts (R) 743+1
Bob Krist (D) 738+3
Nevada Republican governor Brian Sandoval term-limited
Steve Sisolak (D) 806
Adam Laxalt (R) 653
New Hampshire Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Chris Sununu (R) 993
Molly Kelly (D) 300.
Jilletta Jarvis (L) 290.
New Mexico Republican governor Susana Martinez term-limited
Steve Pearce (R) 973+66+10=1,049
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 646+329+32=1,007
New York Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election
Andrew Cuomo (D) 3,767+33
Marc Molinaro (R) 2,009
Howie Hawkins (G) 1,124
Larry Sharpe (L) 617
Cynthia Nixon (I) 201
Ohio Republican governor John Kasich term-limited
Richard Cordray (D) 4,450+26
Mike DeWine (R) 3,254+6
Oklahoma Republican governor Mary Fallin term-limited
Drew Edmondson (D) 1,240
Kevin Stitt (R) 383+12
Chris Powell (L) 321+8
Joe Maldonado(L) 15
Oregon Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election
Knute Buehler (R) 1,663
Kate Brown (D) 1,186
Pennsylvania Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election
Scott Wagner (R) 5,601+11
Tom Wolf (D) 5,152+26
Ken Krawchuk (L) 506
Rhode Island Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election
Gina Raimondo (D) 260
Allan Fung (R) 220
South Carolina Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Henry McMaster (R) 557+5
James Emerson Smith (D) 172
South Dakota Republican governor Dennis Daugaard term-limited
Billie Sutton (D) 1,094
Kristi Noem (R) 402+319
Tennessee Republican governor Bill Haslam term-limited
Karl Dean (D) 1,920
Bill Lee (R) 1,290.
Texas Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Greg Abbott (R) 4,707
Lupe Valdez (D) 1,440+4
Vermont Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Phil Scott (R) 671+5
Christine Hallquist (D) 250.
Wisconsin Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election
Scott Walker (R) 4,187+14
Tony Evers (D) 1,477+3
Wyoming Republican governor Matt Mead term-limited
Mary Throne (D) 251
Mark Gordon (R) 172
Rex Rammell (C) 5
Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.
IFFY Awards: Oct. 30, 2018
OnTheIssues disendorsements for candidates who refuse to take issue stances
OnTheIssues condemns candidates with an "IFFY Award" for running an "Issue-Free campaign." These are "iffy" candidates because they refused to provide voters with information on what they believe and how they will legislate. They are likely to be "iffy legislators" too -- never providing their constituents with information, on the belief that the less voters know, the more likely the "iffy" candidates are to get re-elected.
An IFFY award is a non-partisan condemnation: OnTheIssues doesn't care WHAT candidates' issue stances are -- as long as they HAVE issue stances!
At OnTheIssues, we believe that candidates should make clear their issue stances, and if they don't do that, then they should not run for office at all, and if they get elected and still won't divulge their issue stances, that they should resign or be driven from office by outraged constituents. Following are our three "iffy" candidates for 2018:
NBC-10-TV reports that Fung avoided all primary debates:
"The two favorite contenders for the major partyís nominations are refusing to appear in any of the offered statewide forums.
'Itís not OK in a democracy,' NBC 10's political analyst said. 'Avoiding debates might rub voters the wrong way and they might just end up staying home in the general election.' "
During the general election debate, the Providence Journal reported that Fung's independent opponent Joe Trillo brought up the IFFY issue:
"Trillo saved his most colorful exchanges for Fung, whom he called 'wimpy' for not taking positions on issues."
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Mayor Fung since 2014, when he also ran for Governor (and also provided few issue stances). Mayor Fung has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
KGOU's Trevor Brown reported that the sole one-hour debate on Sept. 24 "waded into social issues,
including abortion, parental rights and gun control. Neither candidate, however, seemed to want to press these issues as campaign focal points."
Edmondson's opponent, however, has made public his stances on those three issues (and more), while Edmondson has not.
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Edmondson all campaign season. Edmondson has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
Project VoteSmart reprots, "Chele Farley has refused to provide voters with positions on key issues covered by the 2018 Political Courage Test, despite repeated requests from Vote Smart and voters like you."
The Auburn Citizen commented that "In her campaign launch video... Farley blamed Gillibrand, a Democrat, for the state not getting its fair share from the federal government.... There wasn't much revealed in the video about Farley's platform."
Farley has continued that lack of platform throughout the campaign, running on a platform of Gillibrand's failings.
OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Farley all campaign season. Farley has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
Source: See past IFFY disendorsements with links to candidates' issue stances.
House election prediction: Oct. 24, 2018
Predictions in four House races: two GOP victories; two Democratic victories
OnTheIssues makes four predictions in House races for the four districts for which we have web pages for both nominees.
(for most House districts, we only cover the incumbent).
We predict races based on the relative number of viewers of the candidates' pages on our website.
This "polling" method indicates interest in the issue stances of the candidates, which serves as a proxy for voting for candidates.
Downsides of this prediction method include:
- We don't count whether the website viewer actually resides in the district or is registered to vote
- Interest in the issue stances of a candidate could mean negative interest as well as positive interest
- Reading about a candidate doesn't necessarily translate into voting for a candidate
Upsides of this prediction method include:
- This method would have predicted Trump in the 2016 presidential election when most polls predicted Hillary would win.
- Pundits have trouble predicting the 2018 election because hinges on "voter enthusiasm" -- but so does reading our website!
- Internet viewership correlates with youth, which in most elections vote poorly, but are predicted to vote highly in 2018.
Some details of our methodology:
We count only "unique pageviews", which means one "vote" per person for the entire duration of our "poll".
For our House predictions, we count the "viewership score" (number of unique people) from Oct. 1 through Oct. 24 (but if the outcome prediction changes in the next week, we'll report that!)
For our upcoming Gubernatorial and Senatorial predictions, we will count the "viewership score" from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31 (a full month).
The numbers represent unique page views, in some cases for more than one page (because we host a separate page for a gubernatorial candidate who served in the House, e.g.)
House district and analysis:
Predicted winner and loser, and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
Alabama 2nd district: Republican incumbent running for re-election.
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2009-2011 and lost re-election in November 2010 to the current Republican incumbent.
In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this district, 65-33. Results were similarly lopsided in the previous four presidential elections.
We predict an overwhelming Republican victory in this district.
Hawaii 1st district: Democratic incumbent Colleen Hanabusa running for Governor in 2018.
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Hawaii's 2nd district from 2002-2007 and ran for Senate (and lost) in November 2006.
The Republican nominee served in the Hawaii House and has been the Republican nominee for Senate three times, most recently in the 2014 Senate race.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 63-30. Results were similarly lopsided in 2000 through 2012.
We predict a Democratic victory in this district.
Nevada 4th district: Democratic incumbent Ruben Kihuen retiring in 2018.
The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2015-2017 and lost re-election in November 2016 to the current Democratic incumbent.
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2013-2015 and lost re-election in November 2014 to the current Republican nominee.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 50-45. Results were similar in 2012, favoring Obama over Romney.
We predict a Republican victory in this district, despite its Democratic history.
Pennsylvania 17th district: This district had its borders redrawn in court-ordered redistricting during 2018, because of gerrymandering in the previous elections.
Hence both nominees are incumbents in neighboring districts, but many districts will shift around after the November election.
The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 18th district since the special election in 2018.
The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 12th district since the general election in 2012.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 54-43. But in 2012, Obama beat Romney 55-43.
We predict a very close Democratic victory in this district.
Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.
Primary election results: Sept. 11-13, 2018
Nominees decided in NH, RI, and NY
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from New Hampshire gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Massachusetts primary election results: Sept. 4-5, 2018
Nominees decided for Governor, Senate, and House, plus AZ
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Massachusetts gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Primary election results: Aug. 28, 2018
Nominees decided in FL and AZ
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Florida gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Primary election results: Aug. 21, 2018
Nominees decided in AK and WY
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Alaska gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Hawaii primary election results: August 11, 2018
Nominees decided for Governor, Senate, and House
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Hawaii gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Primary election results: Aug.7, 2018
Nominees decided in KS, MI, MO, and WA
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Kansas gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Primary election results: July 17 to Aug. 2, 2018
Nominees decided in AL, NC, GA, and TN
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Tennessee gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
Primary election results: June 26, 2018
Nominees decided in CO, MD, MS, NY, OK, and UT
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Colorado gubernatorial debates with links to other states.